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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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