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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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