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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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