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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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