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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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