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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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