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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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