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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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