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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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