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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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