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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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