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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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