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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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