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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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