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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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