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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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