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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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