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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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