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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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