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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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