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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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