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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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