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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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