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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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