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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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