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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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