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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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