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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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