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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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