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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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