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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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