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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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