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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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