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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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