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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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