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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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