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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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