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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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