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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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