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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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