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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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