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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such ...
Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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