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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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