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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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