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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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