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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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