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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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