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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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