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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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