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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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