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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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