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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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