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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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