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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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