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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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