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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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